- Big changes since yesterday brought the risk-on outlook back on centre stage. - In the US, President Trump fired John Bolton, a known ideological hard-liner heavily against China and Iran, which instantly changed the tone between the US and China
- Based on what Hu Xijin knows, China is going ahead with important measures that will ease the negative impact of the trade war.
- It looks like Trump has shifted his strategy from tough to "get elected again" and for that, he needs to avert a recession.
- Risk markets globally are still digesting this news with moderate moves, but in my view, the outlook for a shift in sentiment changed from negative to positive. However, this would still entail a big IF solutions and agreements are really found and agreed upon between China and the US.
- USD: trading flat and this shift in sentiment definitely ease the pressure of dovish expectations on any central bank.
- EUR: It appears the repricing in bonds and yields hint that traders are questioning the expectation of an extreme dovish stance by the ECB tomorrow, which could help the EUR further up.
- Oil: dropped on the Bolton news and was picked back up on a -7MM barrels draw yesterday, so watch for today's oil stocks which could, if we do not see another draw show the Oil price give in to lower levels.
- Gold: likely to see further correction as this change in sentiment is taking its toll on all safe havens.
- BTC: looking increasingly dovish and went below the 10k this morning a quick move testing the 100-day MA for yet another time.
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