How the Availability Heuristic Works
When you are trying to make a decision, a number of related events or situations might immediately spring to the forefront of your thoughts. As a result, you might judge that those events are more frequent or probable than others. You give greater credence to this information and tend to overestimate the probability and likelihood of similar things happening in the future.
For example, after seeing several news reports about car thefts, you might make a judgment that vehicle theft is much more common than it really is in your area. This type of availability heuristic can be helpful and important in decision-making. When faced with a choice, we often lack the time or resources to investigate in greater depth.
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